Experts identified extreme weather as a primary challenge to food supply in Europe in an assessment of EU food security released by the European Commission on 16 April.

The report, the second of its kind since 2023, is based on insights from an expert group including representatives from EU member states, regions, and various stakeholder groups across the EU food chain.

The findings from the previous survey, conducted in the latter half of 2023, highlighted extreme weather events, import dependencies, transport bottlenecks, market volatility, and high input costs as major concerns regarding food security.

This latest assessment reveals that similar concerns persisted in 2024.

However, this time, respondents working for the national public administrations of EU countries shared stronger concerns about extreme weather events, high input costs, and commodity prices.

Industry stakeholders, in turn, underscored the general risk posed by unfavourable weather to food production and highlighted challenges associated with transport, especially when drought impacts the capacity to use inland waterways due to low water levels.

Squeezed profits

Despite historic price peaks in 2022 and 2023, certain food product prices have begun to decline, impacting farmers’ profit margins, as they grapple with high input costs.

The expert group noted this trend could lead farmers to choose more profitable crops, potentially reducing overall agricultural production or even prompting some to abandon the sector.

“All these elements, on top of a still long period until harvest with possible negative weather developments, could impact food supply in 2024,” reads the assessment.

At the same time, the report highlights the stabilisation of food inflation below 5% in early 2024, and points to a slight decrease in food retail prices.

It also notes that these price reductions have not yet translated into relief for consumers, particularly those in low-income groups.

The report highlights that during the inflation peak in 2022, 8.3% of EU citizens could not afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish, or a vegetarian alternative every other day. For households at risk of poverty, this percentage rises to 20%.

The inability of average-income households to afford meals with animal or plant-based proteins varies significantly across member states, ranging from 1.4% in Ireland to 22.1% in Romania.

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