Slovak elections: Korčok, Pellegrini ready for round two as Russia’s shadow looms
Slovakia’s former pro-Western foreign minister, Ivan Korčok, scored a surprise victory in the first round of the presidential election on Saturday, but the road to final victory over Robert Fico’s coalition partner, Peter Pellegrini will not be smooth, and he will have to grapple with the ruling party’s increasingly problematic foreign policy stance vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine.
With 42.5% of the votes, Korčok did better than any of the polls predicted. Most forecasted a narrow victory for Pellegrini, the parliament speaker and leader of the ruling Hlas party, but after the votes were counted, he amassed just 37%.
Speaking after the results, the first-round winner immediately aimed at the ruling party and the ongoing diplomatic crisis with Slovakia’s close allies.
“I certainly have to now talk to the voters of the ruling coalition, who disagree with where the government is taking Slovakia, especially in foreign policy,” Korčok said after his victory was announced, referring to Fico’s friendly stance towards Russia.
“They surely do not agree with the way we are distancing ourselves, insulting our closest partners and burning bridges with those closest to us, the Czech Republic and Poland. This is not good for Slovakia,” the former foreign minister added.
Slovakia is facing increasing isolation from its neighbours, including exclusion from meetings in Ukraine as well as within the EU and NATO and the suspension of intergovernmental cooperation with Czechia over Fico’s pro-Russian views and stance on the Ukraine war.
Pellegrini congratulated Korčok but also noted that the sum of the results showed that “The majority of Slovaks do not want a liberal-right-progressive president”.
The next and final face-off between Korčok and Pellegrini will occur on 6 April.
However, despite Korčok’s triumph in the first round, nothing is settled as polls and experts point out that Pellegrini could move to mobilise the voters of the losing candidates.
Can Korčok win?
According to political analysts Grigorij Mesežnikov, president of the Institute for Public Affairs in Slovakia, and Radoslav Štefančík of the University of Economics in Bratislava, Korčok’s ultimate victory will depend on a combination of factors.
The key will be whether he attracts the non-voters and for whom Slovakia’s largest minority, the Hungarians, will vote in the second round.
But what happens next for supporters of Štefan Harabin, a pro-Russian former justice minister who came third with just 11.7% of the vote, will be crucial.
“For Korčok to win (…) It would take the absence of Harabin’s voters in the second round and the support for Korčok from Western-leaning candidates,” Štefančík pointed out.
The values of Harabin’s voters resonate well with Robert Fico’s coalition. This is also confirmed by the fact that Andrej Danko, the leader of the coalition party SNS, gave up his presidential candidacy in favour of Harabin instead of Pellegrini.
Opinion polls published by three different Slovak agencies in the run-up to the first round predicted a tense final battle between the candidates, with all predicting a narrow victory for Pellegrini.
According to the AKO agency, Pellegrini would win 52.9% and Korčok 47.1%. NMS Market Research predicts an even closer battle, with Korčok losing 49.1% to Pellegrini’s 50.9%.
Slovak choice between the West and status quo
The central premise of Korčok’s campaign is to create a “counterweight” to the actions of the current government. As a senior diplomat, he is known for his pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian stance.
As his comments on Sunday show, he is not afraid to criticise Robert Fico for his pro-Russian stance, dismantling the Special Prosecutor’s Office and his intention to tighten state control over national public broadcaster RTVS.
These steps also led to open criticism from the EU and massive opposition-led protests across Slovakia.
Meanwhile, Pellegrini says Korčok’s counterbalance concept is “absolutely mistaken” and “only promises the conflict between the highest constitutional bodies”.
Pellegrini claims it is important for Slovakia to remain anchored in the EU and NATO but, like Fico, refuses to send military aid to Ukraine.
Before founding the Hlas party in 2020, Pellegrini was a member of the Smer party for almost 20 years and played a key role in forming the current coalition.
His victory would give Fico more opportunities to push through his agenda because, as Mesežnikov told Euractiv Slovakia, he would not create any opposition to his plans.
One expert pointed out that, in his role as parliament speaker, Pellegrini is already actively helping Fico’s coalition pass the most controversial laws, including reforming the criminal code.
“As a member of Smer and a person close to Robert Fico, he has always been loyal,” Mesežnikov said, adding that even now, he is “ready to serve.”
(Natália Silenská | Euractiv.sk)
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