“Freedom isn’t free” is an idiom used to describe sacrifice during times of crisis, used widely in the US to express gratitude to the military for defending freedom.

It is also the name of a song by actor and animator Trey Parker from his 2004 film parody of US militarism, ‘Team America: World Police’.

In Europe, the freedom that part of the continent enjoyed after World War Two and most of the continent after the fall of the Berlin Wall was largely taken for granted, guaranteed by the military power of our most powerful ally – the United States of America.

Given Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House, governments in the EU have started reflecting on the cost of guaranteeing our freedom should Uncle Sam turn his back on the European allies.

Bridging the gap has a particular urgency in the case of Ukraine resisting Russian aggression, with the understanding that if Vladimir Putin wins in Ukraine, he could push his luck further, into EU territory.

We already have a preview of Trump’s policy. At present, he is creating obstacles to passing the new $61-billion US aid package for Ukraine in the House of Representatives, and it is highly uncertain whether the US will send further military aid in 2024.

The last remaining funds for US military assistance to Ukraine were depleted by the end of 2023. The US has allocated around €43 billion in military aid since February 2022, which is about €2 billion per month.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, to fully replace US military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance, which seems like a tall order.

Filling this gap is even more urgent given the shortages of ammunition that have led to Russia capturing the frontline city of Avdiivka and the need to replenish the firepower of Ukrainian air defences as Russia brings in more and more weaponry from allies such as North Korea and Iran.

The goal of not leaving Ukraine outgunned is even more important, given that the country is outnumbered in military personnel.

Ukrainian officials have said their armed forces number around 800,000, while in December, Putin ordered Russia’s forces to be increased by 170,000 troops to 1.3 million.

A new law aimed at mobilising 450,000-500,000 more Ukrainians is slowly making its way through parliament, but for some soldiers fighting now, significant reinforcements seem a very distant hope.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov recently referred to Ukraine’s artillery ammunition deficit as “critical” in a letter to the EU, urging its national leaders to do more to bolster supplies.

His letter said Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces could fire just 2,000 a day, the Financial Times reported.

With much fanfare, in March 2023, EU leaders promised to provide Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition by spring 2024.

But the EU is falling short of this commitment. Around 524,000 shells will be delivered to Ukraine by the planned date, roughly 52% of the target.

Moreover, it’s crucial to note that even the initial goal of one million per year still falls short of Ukraine’s actual needs. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell has this week appealed to EU countries to find ways to increase support to Ukraine, particularly the delivery of ammunition.

Our European Union has for too long sincerely believed that its “soft power” was enough and it refused to spend EU money on lethal weapons. For too long, it inflicted on itself the straitjacket of the 3% budget deficit, which indirectly limits spending on defence.

In the context of war, the EU ammunition production is in no way competitive compared to Russia or North Korea, where the production is on a war footing, 24/7.

In contrast, European industry groups complain of supply chain bottlenecks, swelling raw material costs, shortages of qualified workforce, burdensome regulation and administrative processes.

Moreover, the arms industry business needs clarity about future orders – obviously, apart from the battlefield needs in Ukraine, there is a need to replenish the arsenal reserves across the EU. Who at the EU level can give them the perspective? And in what form?

If the EU is serious about its determination not to grant Putin a victory in Ukraine, it should carefully analyse these messages and take the relevant decision because sending the needed ammunition to Ukraine on time is paramount.

The EU should free the industry producing ammunition from unnecessary burdens and consider EU countries’ spending on defence as an asset, not a liability.

And it should dig in its own pockets. Freedom isn’t free: It’s time the EU realised that.

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The Roundup

EU member states should find ways to increase support to Ukraine, particularly the delivery of badly needed ammunition, the bloc’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell urged his counterparts in a letter seen by Euractiv.

The next European Commission that will be appointed after June’s EU election will focus on implementing green laws adopted in the current mandate and boost investments in clean tech to meet the EU’s 2030 climate goals, a top official has said.

French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said he would convene a meeting of pro-nuclear EU countries on 4 March to discuss the launch of an “Important Project of Common Interest (IPCEI)” in the field of nuclear power.

In the wake of the farmers’ protests, the German government tried to pin the blame on supermarkets, but now the German Monopolies Commission has concluded that there are indeed imbalances, although it warns against hasty political decisions.

The month’s hot topic in Brussels is industrial competitiveness and how it can be connected more closely to the European Green Deal. European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, appointed to lead the Green Deal portfolio last year, has a plan.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has left the door open on the possibility of some parties of the conservative ECR joining her centre-right European People’s Party in the new European Parliament after the June elections.

The controversial appointment of German CDU MEP Markus Pieper as the new EU envoy for small and medium-sized enterprises has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Finally, don’t miss this week’s EU Elections Decoded: Left lost in labyrinth of alliances and splits.

Look out for…

• Informal meeting of economic and financial affairs ministers on Thursday-Saturday.
• Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič chairs clean transition dialogue on critical raw materials on Friday.
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Belgian PM Alexander de Croo meet Polish PM Donald Tusk in Poland on Friday.