May 15. 2024. 4:46

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Iraq’s tumultuous rise, those who are waiting for its calm fall will fail.


Anyone who reads the article published in the Foreign Affairs titled "Iraq is Quietly falling Apart" by Michael Knights would notice that between the lines of the article, which contains false arguments to build a false conclusion — writes Mariam Atta.

The author begins his article by saying that Iraq has achieved a degree of stability only on the surface and goes on to explain that the control of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the Coordination Framework formed the current Government, which will ultimately lead to its collapse.

Iraq is attractive to investors.

Knights indeed forgot that this current Government had exceeded expectations in just six months and that its achievements have gone beyond government data and have become a tangible reality on the ground, felt by Iraqis and seen by the peoples of the Middle East and its leaders, who are investing billions of dollars in a secure and stable Iraq.

In these few lines, we will not be able to elaborate on all the achievements of the Government, which came into office under the most difficult circumstances but was able to drive Iraq towards economic development, a vision of its PM, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani.

The Saudi-Iranian agreement came with Iraqi involvement following a clear vision from Baghdad of its importance for stability and development, and this is evidenced by the subsequent meeting that included the Saudis and Iranians around the table presided by PM AlSudani to discuss the Development Road project, which Iraq aspires to be the nucleus of its move away from dependence on oil as a primary source of income.

How can a country "quietly collapsing" attract Saudi investment, the latest of which is the announcement of Baghdad Avenue, the largest billion-dollar commercial market in which the Saudis participate?

Before that, the signing of the Total Energy agreement in the energy sector totalled $27 billion. For those who don’t know, these big companies have specialists investigating the risks and benefits expected from each project and, therefore, would not invest all this money in an Iraq that is "quietly collapsing."

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Successful regional and international policy

The article’s author is unsatisfied with Iraq’s increasing involvement in its Arab surroundings. Therefore he deliberately distorted an image of cooperation between Iraq and its regional and international surroundings that began to bear fruit and gradually get rid of the control of this or that party on politics and the economy.

Iraq’s announcement of its commitment to OPEC oil production cuts certainly upset several decision-makers who have been vocal in demanding increased production to boost their economy and curb inflation, at the same time, hurt the Russian economy, but that’s another story.

Given the awards of the fifth round of licenses awarded to Chinese and Emirati companies, we have not seen an article in a Chinese or Emirati newspaper saying that Iraq is collapsing.

Budget and Price of Oil

Concerning the Iraqi budget, there is plenty wrong with the shallowness of analysis by a supposedly reputable magazine in political analysis. They assert that the oil price will fall below $70 and Iraq, as a result, will suffer, but they forget that all predictions lead to a rise in oil prices, and at the same time, Iraq enjoys the most significant cash reserves it had in its history, $115 billion. The article also ignores that OPEC’s policy is proactive production raise or cut depending on market conditions to ensure price stability around the current levels. OPEC’s policy is a driver for preserving the interests of member countries, including Iraq, so where will this sudden drop in prices come from?

alMuhandis Company

Concerning alMuhandis company, we do not see the name of this company on the giant oil contracts, nor its name mentioned in the documents submitted by Iraq for the Development Road partners, nor in the agreements signed with Iran on the import of gas, which means that its dominance over the Iraqi economy is inspired by the writer’s imagination (or rather as political bias) and has no factual basis the current stage. AlMuhadis has not been given any contracts.

A question that needs to be asked is that if this company is a cover for militias that are accused of launching drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE since 2019, then why did these countries agree to billions of dollars in investments in Iraq? and why did the Saudi Crown Prince say to the PM alSudani, "My ministers and I are your advisers and are ready to invest from $1 billion up to $ 100 billion in Iraq"!?

Iraq enjoys stability

Ambassador Barbara Leaf, US Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East, said that Iraq’s economic vitality is manifested for the first time in Iraq; the author mentioned this statement without placing them in any context that serves his central idea, which increases the superficiality of the theme of the article.

The US official did not make these statements to an Iraqi channel or media outlet. It was made during an official testimony in front of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on which there is no comment except that Iraq "is manifesting economic vitality for the first time."

The article rightly confirms that terrorist violence has fallen to its lowest level in twenty years, during which Iraqis have tasted the bitterness of terrorism and the scourge of sectarian fighting.

This security stability is undeniable, as the role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and other security forces such as the Army, the Counter Terrorism Service, and the Peshmarga is undeniable in security the defeat of the terrorist organization ISIS and recapturing the cities it controlled. Despite that, the alSudani Government is adamant about moving away from the militarisation of society. The Government allocated enough funds to build bases for the PMF and other forces to be resettled outside Iraqi cities.

The Foreign Affairs article is based on the vision of a writer or even a magazine that wants more attention from the US administration. Still, it disregards the successes already achieved, endorsed by testimonies from the US administration. The article is simply an attempt to question the hard work pursued by alSudani’s Government from day one, regardless of hard facts of achievements on the ground.

Iraq is not collapsing but quietly thriving.

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