A tight race for third place in the European Parliament elections continues with the liberal Renew Europe group recovering the lead over far-right ID and nationalist-conservative ECR group, according to Europe Elect’s latest projection for Euractiv.

Check out the detailed data broken down by country on Euractiv’s new EU elections projections page.

After losing third place in terms of seats to ECR and ID back in November, the latest projection shows that the liberal Renew Europe group has recovered the lead with 87 seats. Fourth comes ID with 82, and fifth, ECR with 81.

With such close numbers and a continued battle for the third, fourth and fifth place over the last month, the three groups are edging closer to June’s vote with major uncertainty.

The electoral campaign will be crucial to tipping the balance, especially in member states where the far right is surging, such as France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria.

The outcome of this race will determine to what extent the current coalition of socialists, liberals, and centre-right in the assembly weakens and to what extent the right-wing side of the hemicycle can block legislation.

Meanwhile, the Greens and The Left groups are fiercely fighting for sixth place, scoring 51 and 46 seats, respectively.

A decisive factor could be whether the new party Shara Wagenknecht Alliance, projected to get three seats, ultimately joins The Left. On the Greens side, they are placing their bets on a southern and eastern expansion as their strongholds, including France and Germany, weaken.

Other key developments since mid-March projections

• Germany: CDU (EPP) gains two seats up to 22; SPD (S&D) earns two seats up to 17; Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) recovers four seats up to 14; liberal FDP (Renew) loses two seats down to four; Animal Protection party (The Left) loses two seats down to one.
• Romania: Far-right AUR (ECR) loses four seats down to eight; far-right S.O.S (ID) gains two seats, up from zero.
• Netherlands: newcomer centre-right party NSC (EPP) drops from four to two seats.
• Czechia: ANO (Renew) loses two seats, bringing its total to seven; Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) loses two, reducing its total to one seat.

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